Nintendo in 2006: Hopes and Expectations

2006 will be one of the biggest years in Nintendo’s History. The industry giant is predicted to play third fiddle in the next-gen console war, but Nintendo might not be part of it at all; the Revolution could well carve out its own market and thrive while the big two battle it out. Who knows exactly what will happen, but we have our own hopes and expectations for the company this year.

Hopes

2006 starts well for Nintendo fans, and the DS gets off to a flyer, building on its success earned in the second half of 2005. Early in the year the handheld proves that it’s the only real choice for portable first-person shooters with the release of Metroid Prime Hunters. Brilliant touch screen controls, a deep single-player adventure and a well implemented online mode ensure the game becomes one of the most highly rated and highest selling on the handheld. Other early releases (in Europe anyway) include Animal Crossing: Wild World and Mario and Luigi Partners in Time, solidifying an already impressive software line-up.

Moving into mid to late 2006, the DS’s software dominance over the PSP simply grows, with New Super Mario Bros recapturing the magic of the classic 2D platformers that has been lost on the current systems. Further special edition DS bundles arrive and sell like hotcakes, despite a lull in quality new releases. Quirky titles such as Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney gather momentum as word of mouth spreads, enticing an increasing number of non-gamers to the system. E3 arrives in early May and the PlayStation 3 from Sony and Halo 3 from Microsoft can’t stop the barrage of press being given to the Revolution. The buzz surrounding the innovative controller reaches an all time high as it’s used in real games for the first time by the gaming press, becoming the subject of everybody’s conversations. Metroid Prime 3 and a new Mario game get the most attention, but quirky mini-game collections prove to be the most entertaining on the show floor, offering some really original ideas.

September sees the worldwide release of the much anticipated Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess. The game becomes the fastest selling GameCube game in history and the now budget-priced console sells more hardware units in one week than the previous six months combined. The wait was most certainly worth it, with the forty-hour plus adventure being hailed as this generation’s greatest game. The DS gets in on the Zelda action too, with an original 3D adventure of its own. Other surprise releases on the DS include Pikmin and Donkey Konga, complete with extra stylus for true two-handed touch screen drumming. Cooking Mama (yes, a cooking game) finally arrives in Europe and North America, and despite being ludicrous, sells extremely well.

While the GameCube has gone out with a bang and the DS is firing on all cylinders, the biggest release of the year is the Nintendo Revolution. Following Microsoft’s lead, the console launches around the world at staggered dates in late November and early December. The launch line-up is small (6-8 titles), but full of quality, with Metroid Prime and Mario from Nintendo, and titles from Capcom, EA, Ubisoft and others. The console itself only costs £130 ($200 in the US) and games retail at the same price as current GameCube releases. The launch titles are backed up by a huge selection of downloadable games from Nintendo’s back catalogue, with games costing no more than £4.

Nintendo end the year on a huge high. Revolution sales are very strong and online downloads of classic titles soar past predictions. The DS manages to compete with the PSP’s strong Christmas line-up and sales are neck and neck throughout the last quarter of 2006.

Expectations

Early 2006 releases once again show how poorly Nintendo treat Europe. Almost every big release for the Nintendo DS in Q1 2006 has already been released in North America before Christmas 2005 and the release of Animal Crossing: Wild World in late March is the icing on the already rotten cake. Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney and Trauma centre also receive Q1 2006 releases in Europe and on the back of zero advertising both games fail to sell in the numbers they should.

E3 marks the first time the Revolution is playable with proper games, but the line-up is seriously limited compared to the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3. Apart from Nintendo’s own titles, which look very promising and make good use of the controller in ‘real’ games, 80 percent of the others use existing successful characters to sell mini-game collections. The Revolution’s saviour is the Nintendo Virtual Console. Over one hundred Nintendo titles are announced for day one, with the split being equal between the NES, SNES and N64. No price point is given, but Nintendo say “prices will be competitive.”

The E3 games convention also signals the end of the road for the Game Boy Advance. A healthy number of titles are on display for the aging handheld, but most are simply based on popular kids’ TV shows and movies. The DS has a worrying number of shoddy titles on display too, but triple-A titles from Nintendo ease our concerns. Good titles are on their way for the DS, but the show is all about the Revolution. New Super Mario Bros is released shortly after E3, but a drought of quality releases follows. Metroid Prime Hunters ends up disappointing, with limited online play (with wireless router problems still preventing many people from getting online) and an overly simple and repetitive single-player adventure. The controls are sublime though, and show that the DS beats the PSP hands down in the FPS genre.

The busy period starting in September kicks off poorly for Nintendo. The GameCube is all but dead in the UK in terms of sales and the DS is struggling against the PSP in Europe. November sees the release of The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess for the GameCube and a Four Swords style dual screen Zelda adventure for the Nintendo DS. Both titles sell extremely well, but Twilight Princess fails to sell as many units as predicted, despite being the biggest selling GameCube title of 2006 by a huge margin. Japan and North America receive the Zelda titles in September and October respectively.

The Nintendo Revolution is released in Japan in late September, with a US release in early November and Europe having to wait until December 10. The console retails for $200 (US), but we have to pay over the odds in the UK, with a £150 launch price. Only four games are released with the system, with Metroid Prime missing launch and none of the titles feature online play. The Nintendo Virtual Console saves the system, with early adopters lapping up a huge selection of classic titles. Pricing isn’t quite as competitive as anticipated though, with NES titles costing £4, SNES titles costing £6 and N64 titles costing £8-£10.

The late launch of the console in Europe isn’t helped by a PlayStation 3 launch in mid-November, the hard drive equipped Xbox 360 dropping in price to £230 and the Core pack falling to £180. With the PlayStation 3 flying out of retail stores and the Xbox 360 selling well due to a strong second Christmas line-up, the Revolution struggles in Europe. The DS has no such problems, with numerous game and hardware bundles proving to be very popular.

Well, that’s what we think, but who are we to predict the future of one of the most unpredictable gaming giants. Check back soon for more future gazing, looking at the other major players in 2006.