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Next-Gen has posted an exclusive look at IDG’s Q3 report on the future of the game industry, and it makes some interesting reading. In brief, the report puts the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 almost neck and neck in North America by 2010, with an install base of 23.9 million and 23.5 million respectively. The Wii finds it self a distant third with console sales of 13.6 million. The full report also includes sales across Europe and predictions for the PC and handheld markets.
The report notes that the Xbox 360 is on course to achieve sales of 4.9 million in its first full calendar year, a significant step up from the Xbox which only managed 3.4 million. Thanks to its head start and limited supply of the PlayStation 3, the Xbox 360 is expected to hold onto its install base lead until the end of the decade.
The PlayStation 3 is having ongoing manufacturing difficulties and the report has reflected this in its sales forecast, notably only predicting 0.9 million sales in 2006. This will pick up substantially in the years ahead, but it’s not until the turn of a new decade that the PS3 is forecast to take the lead. The IDG report says that the PS3 will win the next-gen war, but dos not expect the margin to be that significant – predicting a 55/45 split with the Xbox 360.
The Wii is predicted to benefit from the limited launch supply of the PS3, and the launch bundle (the Wii includes Wii Sports) makes the console a self-contained gift option. In addition, the decision to bundle Wii Sports with the console is not predicted to reduce the hardware to software tie ratio by a significant margin. Despite the positive outlook, the Wii is predicted to be over 10 million units behind the competition by 2010.
Estimated North America Hardware Sales / Installed base 2006:
Xbox: 360: 4.9 Million / 5.6 million
PS3: 0.9 Million / 0.9 million
Wii: 1.1 Million / 1.1 million
Estimated North America Hardware Sales / Installed base 2007:
Xbox 360: 6 Million / 11.6 million
PS3: 5.6 million / 6.5 million
Wii: 3.4 million / 4.5 million
Estimated North America Hardware Sales / Installed base 2008:
Xbox 360: 5.3 million / 16.9 million
PS3: 6.3 million / 12.7 million
Wii: 3.9 million / 8.4 million
Estimated North America Hardware Sales / Installed base 2009:
Xbox 360: 4.1 million / 21.1 million
PS3: 5.6 million / 18.4 million
Wii: 3.1 million / 11.4 million
Estimated North America Hardware Sales / Installed base 2010:
Xbox 360: 2.8 million / 23.9 million
PS3: 5.2 million / 23.5 million
Wii: 2.2 million / 13.6 million
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