Call of Duty players may ‘defect’ to Battlefield 3

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter expects a number of Call of Duty players to ‘defect’ to EA’s Battlefield 3 later this year.

The analyst’s latest research note states that “we expect EA’s game to perform exceedingly well, eclipsing the 6.5 million units sold by [Battlefield: Bad Company 2], and think that Activision’s introduction of Call of Duty Elite (its premium subscription service) could cause a small number of loyal Call of Duty players to defect to EA’s game.”

Pachter doesn’t predict total doom and gloom for Activision and Call of Duty – there’s the chance that Modern Warfare 3 will outsell the 9/10 grabbing Black Ops – but does think the publisher’s shares might be at risk if EA’s rival shooter manages to do well with the critics.

“While we think that Activision’s 2011 Call of Duty sales have the potential to eclipse last year’s mind-boggling 20 million units, due primarily to the network effect created by the game’s remarkable 17 million weekly active unique online players, we think that the company’s shares may come under pressure when EA’s game is launched, particularly if Battlefield 3 receives a 90+ Metacritic score.”

The Call of Duty: Elite beta begins on July 14 with support for Call of Duty: Black Ops. Over two million people are reported to have signed up for the beta.

Two weeks ago Call of Duty: Black Ops officially became the UK’s biggest selling game of all time.

Battlefield 3 will be released for Xbox 360, PS3, and PC on October 28. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 will be released for the same three platforms on November 8.

I think the only logical way for EA and Activision to sort this out is for John Riccitiello and Bobby Kotick to have a no holds barred cage fight. Pachter can be the judge. I’ll throw in a tenner to see that happen. Who’s with me?