Pre-orders for Sony's Killzone: Shadow Fall on PS4 are tracking ahead of next-gen rivals Forza 5, Ryse and Dead Rising 3, a report from analyst Cowen & Co. has revealed.
The 2013 Cowen Video Game Odometer is based on an analysis of NPD sales data and Amazon.com best-seller data from past years, which the firm claims to give it 96 to 97 per cent accuracy. Data has been monitored since E3 in June and is updated every few weeks.
Out of a maximum score of 100, Killzone: Shadow Fall currently scores 30.3, which compares favourably to next-gen competition.
Forza 5 is the top placed Xbox One title at 18.8, followed by Dead Rising 3 at 15 and Ryse at 13.2. Sony may well be concerned about its full launch line-up, however, with Knack only scoring 7.7 and Driveclub barely registering on 3.0.
Cowen states that we are "very early in the pre-order cycle for most of the games we are tracking".
To put these figures into context, last year's Black Ops 2 scored 100 and went on to generate sales of $1 billion in 15 days. This year's Call of Duty: Ghosts has a score of 73, meaning it's on track to sell fewer units than Blops 2, but could perform better than Modern Warfare 3.
Battlefield 4 scored 54.7, tracking ahead of Battlefield 3, whilst Ubisoft's Watch Dogs is clearly set to perform well for a new IP with a score of 69.6.
Somewhat surprisingly, GTA 5 only scores 58.4, but Cowen notes that this doesn't take into account pre-orders prior to June 2013 – the game was accepting orders way back in November 2012.