XCOM: Enemy Unknown: Mission 15


Description: In perhaps the most eventful mission so far, Matt takes an all-star cast to Japan to deal with a UFO landing.

Publish Date: 7 December, 2012

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altaranga's Avatar

altaranga@ altaranga

When I said "You're in the wrong job" I didn't mean "Go out and get yourself a new one" FFS.

Anyway, any clues as to when the next one will be available?
Posted 15:25 on 13 December 2012
reynoldio's Avatar

reynoldio@ mydeaddog

I made two mistakes there. Firstly I took the conversational values rather than looking at the actual numbers, hence the quarters and halves.

Secondly, and much more importantly, I took 9 away from 16 and got 5. I hang up my maths teacher hat forever. *wanders away sheepishly*
Posted 12:16 on 11 December 2012
mydeaddog's Avatar


I'm not sure. I was out yesterday, and I need to crack on with some of our GOTY stuff, but I might see if Matt can be persuaded to do more this afternoon. He might be a bit reluctant after the last one!
Posted 11:33 on 11 December 2012
altaranga's Avatar

altaranga@ mydeaddog

You're in the wrong job. A good answer, sir.

More to the point, when's the next mission?!?!
Posted 11:24 on 11 December 2012
mydeaddog's Avatar

mydeaddog@ reynoldio

Originally Posted by reynoldio
...Therefore the chance of at least one hit is 5/16 - only just more than a quarter.

I can't agree with your maths, there.

We're looking for the odds of at least one hit, right? So looking for the odds of [hit then hit], [hit then miss] or [miss then hit]. In other words, anything that isn't [miss then miss].

If the odds are 1/4 to hit, that means there's a 3/4 chance you'll miss. The probability of both shots missing is 3/4 * 3/4 = 9/16

If the probability of both shots missing = 9/16
The probability of at least one shot hitting = 7/16

7/16 works out as a 43.75% chance to hit. That's not 50 per cent, I grant you, but it's better than 40% for the single shot.

Also, just to complicate matters... I checked the situation we were talking about, and the odds we were given were 39% for a single hit versus two shots at 24%.

24% success = 24/100 = 6/25
That mean the odds of [miss then miss] is 19/25 * 19/25 = 361/625
That means the odds of at least one hit = 264/625

264/625 = 0.4224 or a 42.24% chance to score a hit, versus the 39% offered for a single shot.

Therefore, in purely numerical terms, we should have gone for the rapid fire shot.
Posted 10:01 on 11 December 2012
Njeezy's Avatar


Who the hell is Don! :S
Posted 00:51 on 10 December 2012
reynoldio's Avatar


Only 20 mins in so not read comments / spoilers, but had to point out the maths fail!

Draw a little tree diagram to see that a 1/4 shot then another 1/4 shot does not make 1/2 chance of hitting, not even close!

First shot is 3/4 miss and 1/4 hit. At the end of each of those two branches on the tree is the second shot with either 3/4 miss or 1/4 hit. Hence you have 4 outcomes, Miss/Miss, Miss/Hit, Hit/Miss, Hit/Hit with likelihoods of 9/16, 3/16, 3/16 and 1/16 respectively (multiply 3/4 by 3/4 to get 9/16, 3/4 x 1/4 = 3/16 and so on). Therefore the chance of at least one hit is 5/16 - only just more than a quarter.

I don't take the rapid fire perk...
Posted 23:42 on 08 December 2012
Boden5190's Avatar


no more hollywood star power :(

well, time to get some more newbies recruited.
Posted 16:24 on 08 December 2012
s_h_a_d_o's Avatar


Show Spoiler So sorry for your loss(es), Matt.
But buck up... I learnt the hard way that if Neon had not stayed your hand from aborting the mission, then everyone on the squad would have been KIA. :(

Raise a glass to our fallen comrades - it's never 'Njeezy' to say goodbye, but they 'Will' remain Legend.
Posted 02:51 on 08 December 2012
Hooded's Avatar

Hooded@ Njeezy

Show Spoiler I'm sorry

I just watched the last 3 missions, been busy and my little boy has been really ill. Anyways, great video guys, intense stuff!
Posted 22:16 on 07 December 2012
Mintyrebel's Avatar

Mintyrebel@ MJTH

Watchya tryin' to say ;)
Posted 18:29 on 07 December 2012
MJTH's Avatar


That was INTENSE.... I'm going to have a lot to put in my spreadsheet. Also I just noticed the MintyRebel's Nickname is rogue. A more appropriate nickname has never been given.

Show Spoiler R.I.P. Will smith and Njeezy, the stars of the show. Don't blame yourself Matt, this wasn't your fault. You did everything you could under the circumstances.
Posted 18:00 on 07 December 2012
Mister_Black's Avatar

Mister_Black@ mydeaddog

I'm a bit further down the road in my campaign on the same difficulty level and it seemed to me that the game takes your place on the research tree into account. I'm not sure though, but if it's true you won't see to many berserkers and sectopods in the upcoming missions. But getting your hands on your first plasma gun might unleash things you're not entirely ready for. And concerning more assaulters; that could also work with a more aggressive gameplay style using run&gun a lot to get them in close with 85%+ hitrates. But get the additional armour first to hedge against unexpected misses...
Posted 16:00 on 07 December 2012
Mintyrebel's Avatar


without the . [.spoiler][/.spoiler]
Posted 15:59 on 07 December 2012
MrGloomy's Avatar

MrGloomy@ Mintyrebel

Oops, forgot about that. How do I do that then? :P
Posted 15:58 on 07 December 2012
Click to play Mission 16
Mission 16
Click to play Mission 15
Mission 15
Click to play Game of the Year Shortlist
Game of the Year Shortlist
Click to play Mission 14
Mission 14

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XCOM: Enemy Unknown

XCOM: Enemy Unknown
Available For: Xbox 360, PS3, PC, iPhone, PS Vita Genre: Turn-based strategy

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