# XCOM: Enemy Unknown: Mission 15

**Description:** In perhaps the most eventful mission so far, Matt takes an all-star cast to Japan to deal with a UFO landing.

**Publish Date:** 7 December, 2012

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**Description:** In perhaps the most eventful mission so far, Matt takes an all-star cast to Japan to deal with a UFO landing.

**Publish Date:** 7 December, 2012

View all Comments
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29 Comments

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## User Comments

altaranga@ altarangaAnyway, any clues as to when the next one will be available?

reynoldio@ mydeaddogSecondly, and much more importantly, I took 9 away from 16 and got 5. I hang up my maths teacher hat forever. *wanders away sheepishly*

mydeaddogaltaranga@ mydeaddogMore to the point, when's the next mission?!?!

mydeaddog@ reynoldioreynoldioI can't agree with your maths, there.

We're looking for the odds of

at least onehit, right? So looking for the odds of [hit then hit], [hit then miss] or [miss then hit]. In other words, anything that isn't [miss then miss].If the odds are 1/4 to hit, that means there's a 3/4 chance you'll miss. The probability of

bothshots missing is 3/4 * 3/4 = 9/16If the probability of both shots missing = 9/16

The probability of at least one shot hitting = 7/16

7/16 works out as

a 43.75% chance to hit. That's not 50 per cent, I grant you, but it's better than 40% for the single shot.Also, just to complicate matters... I checked the situation we were talking about, and the odds we were given were 39% for a single hit versus two shots at 24%.

24% success = 24/100 = 6/25

That mean the odds of [miss then miss] is 19/25 * 19/25 = 361/625

That means the odds of at least one hit = 264/625

264/625 = 0.4224 or

a 42.24% chance to score a hit, versus the 39% offered for a single shot.Therefore, in purely numerical terms, we should have gone for the rapid fire shot.

NjeezyreynoldioDraw a little tree diagram to see that a 1/4 shot then another 1/4 shot does not make 1/2 chance of hitting, not even close!

First shot is 3/4 miss and 1/4 hit. At the end of each of those two branches on the tree is the second shot with either 3/4 miss or 1/4 hit. Hence you have 4 outcomes, Miss/Miss, Miss/Hit, Hit/Miss, Hit/Hit with likelihoods of 9/16, 3/16, 3/16 and 1/16 respectively (multiply 3/4 by 3/4 to get 9/16, 3/4 x 1/4 = 3/16 and so on). Therefore the chance of at least one hit is 5/16 - only just more than a quarter.

I don't take the rapid fire perk...

Boden5190well, time to get some more newbies recruited.

s_h_a_d_oBut buck up... I learnt the hard way that if Neon had not stayed your hand from aborting the mission, then

everyoneon the squad would have been KIA. :(Raise a glass to our fallen comrades - it's never 'Njeezy' to say goodbye, but they 'Will' remain Legend.

Hooded@ NjeezyI just watched the last 3 missions, been busy and my little boy has been really ill. Anyways, great video guys, intense stuff!

Mintyrebel@ MJTHMJTHMister_Black@ mydeaddogMintyrebelMrGloomy@ MintyrebelShow Older Comments