XCOM: Enemy Unknown: Mission 15

When I said "You're in the wrong job" I didn't mean "Go out and get yourself a new one" FFS.

Anyway, any clues as to when the next one will be available?

I made two mistakes there. Firstly I took the conversational values rather than looking at the actual numbers, hence the quarters and halves.

Secondly, and much more importantly, I took 9 away from 16 and got 5. I hang up my maths teacher hat forever. *wanders away sheepishly*

I'm not sure. I was out yesterday, and I need to crack on with some of our GOTY stuff, but I might see if Matt can be persuaded to do more this afternoon. He might be a bit reluctant after the last one!

You're in the wrong job. A good answer, sir.

More to the point, when's the next mission?!?!

Quote:

...Therefore the chance of at least one hit is 5/16 - only just more than a quarter.

I can't agree with your maths, there.

We're looking for the odds of at least one hit, right? So looking for the odds of [hit then hit], [hit then miss] or [miss then hit]. In other words, anything that isn't [miss then miss].

If the odds are 1/4 to hit, that means there's a 3/4 chance you'll miss. The probability of both shots missing is 3/4 * 3/4 = 9/16

If the probability of both shots missing = 9/16
The probability of at least one shot hitting = 7/16

7/16 works out as a 43.75% chance to hit. That's not 50 per cent, I grant you, but it's better than 40% for the single shot.



Also, just to complicate matters... I checked the situation we were talking about, and the odds we were given were 39% for a single hit versus two shots at 24%.

24% success = 24/100 = 6/25
That mean the odds of [miss then miss] is 19/25 * 19/25 = 361/625
That means the odds of at least one hit = 264/625

264/625 = 0.4224 or a 42.24% chance to score a hit, versus the 39% offered for a single shot.

Therefore, in purely numerical terms, we should have gone for the rapid fire shot.

Who the hell is Don! :S

Only 20 mins in so not read comments / spoilers, but had to point out the maths fail!

Draw a little tree diagram to see that a 1/4 shot then another 1/4 shot does not make 1/2 chance of hitting, not even close!

First shot is 3/4 miss and 1/4 hit. At the end of each of those two branches on the tree is the second shot with either 3/4 miss or 1/4 hit. Hence you have 4 outcomes, Miss/Miss, Miss/Hit, Hit/Miss, Hit/Hit with likelihoods of 9/16, 3/16, 3/16 and 1/16 respectively (multiply 3/4 by 3/4 to get 9/16, 3/4 x 1/4 = 3/16 and so on). Therefore the chance of at least one hit is 5/16 - only just more than a quarter.

I don't take the rapid fire perk...

no more hollywood star power :(

well, time to get some more newbies recruited.

I just watched the last 3 missions, been busy and my little boy has been really ill. Anyways, great video guys, intense stuff!

Watchya tryin' to say ;)

That was INTENSE.... I'm going to have a lot to put in my spreadsheet. Also I just noticed the MintyRebel's Nickname is rogue. A more appropriate nickname has never been given.

I'm a bit further down the road in my campaign on the same difficulty level and it seemed to me that the game takes your place on the research tree into account. I'm not sure though, but if it's true you won't see to many berserkers and sectopods in the upcoming missions. But getting your hands on your first plasma gun might unleash things you're not entirely ready for. And concerning more assaulters; that could also work with a more aggressive gameplay style using run&gun a lot to get them in close with 85%+ hitrates. But get the additional armour first to hedge against unexpected misses...

without the . [.spoiler][/.spoiler]