Take-Two's targets "inconceivable" without the release of GTA V this financial year, reckons Pachter.
A release date for Grand Theft Auto V will be announced before November, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter has estimated, adding that he's "baffled as to
why the company is unwilling to share any information with investors about the game's development progress."
Speaking in a Wedbush report published today, Pachter said that an announcement at Gamescom later this month "remains a possibility".
"We expect a GTA V release date announcement by as late as November," said Pachter.
"There was no such announcement at E3, making a pre-holiday release less likely
(but still possible). An announcement at gamescom in August remains a possibility."
Pachter doesn't believe that Take-Two can achieve its second half targets "without a Grand Theft Auto V release this fiscal year", and that Take-Two's "FY:13 guidance implies the release of Grand Theft Auto V in FY:13.
"We expect solid contribution from Borderlands 2 and BioShock Infinite," he continued, "and believe that these games plus this year's NBA 2K installment could combine to deliver profits close to the last GTA.
"However, it is inconceivable that Take-Two could generate profits at twice that rate without significantly higher sales, and these sales could only come from the launch of GTA V."
FY 13 ends on March 31, 2013.
"If such an announcement were to occur [at Gamescom], we continue to believe that Tuesday, October 23 or Tuesday, October 30 are realistic dates for GTA's release," Pachter continued.
"Many of the game's predecessors had late-October release dates, while GTA 4 was unexpectedly delayed out of an October release due to technical difficulties with the PS3 version. The recent delay of BioShock Infinite's release date from October 2012 to February 2013 strengthens our belief in a fall release for GTA, as Take-Two would likely want to avoid releasing two such important games in close proximity, potentially impairing the spending ability of some gamers."
He concluded: "It appears that Take-Two's weak share price reflects the lack of investor confidence that the game will come out this year, or even in the foreseeable future."
Take-Two stated last night that Rockstar is "making substantial progress" on the development of GTA V.