project morpheus -
project morpheus -

Sony investing money into the development of VR headset Project Morpheus is a "really bad idea" as it will be hard to make money on the device, video games analyst Michael Pachter has told DualShockers.

"I think it's a bad idea for multiple participants to chase it, and I think it's a really bad idea for Sony," said Pachter.

The situation with Oculus Rift, however, is different because the firm is a start-up.

"I have no problem with the Oculus Rift, that they're trying it, because they're a start-up and that's a very small market and if they dominate it that's great, but if it's a small market and there are multiple players, it's gonna be hard for anybody to make money.

"And I don't think it's gonna be a big market. It sounds interesting, but I don't think there will be enough content to justify making the capital investment to create the headset. I think it's chicken and egg. If there's no content you're not gonna buy a virtual reality headset, and if you don't buy a virtual reality headset, there won't be any content, because no one will make a dedicated game for a very small audience."

Pachter concluded: "I think the Oculus guys are gonna be very happy with a million sales. If they get a million sales, they're gonna get a ton of money. A million sales is a huge success for Oculus Rift.

"It's just a hiccup for Sony."

Neither Oculus Rift or Project Morpheus have firm dates for commercial launches.

Source: DualShockers

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User Comments

coolguyhero's Avatar

coolguyhero

i never trusted patcher (he is paid by Microsoft) always say against the sony. Earlier, he said xbox1 is going to beat Sony by 2:1 ,now the scenario is quite opposite.there is always room for VR if the content & advertisement is good. Content can increase hardware sales. Sony can use VR for movies & other immersive games.if the VR is cheap surely many people will buy it & sony is targeting something 250 to 300 $ which is kewl.
Posted 17:13 on 29 March 2014
justerthought's Avatar

justerthought@ Karlius

The things he got right are the obvious things we already worked out ourselves. The things he got wrong are where he stuck his neck out, like claiming consoles are dead and next gen PS4 will be a fail with small adoption. I disagreed at the time and I was right, he was wrong and is paid a nice salary.
Posted 18:30 on 27 March 2014
justerthought's Avatar

justerthought

I call Michael Pachter Mr State The Obvious, because he makes a living out of stating the obvious. When he states the obvious he is always correct. The trouble is he needs to stick his neck out every now and again to remain relevant and that's when he always calls it wrong. This is another example.

It's short sighted looking at the short term gain. If we all thought like him we would not have progress because we would be constricted by his financial model. Even if VR does not make any money it will succeed in attracting users and grow the user base. The big user base is where the money is made. This gives room for the VR tech to grow and mature into a valid genre.

Pachter fails to realise that the whole game industry is based on VR. Every game dating right back to the first one has allowed you to leave your current reality and enter an alternative reality, either simulation or surreal. Games have been continually heading towards greater virtual reality and immersion as graphics have increased in resolution. The final destination is true VR. It will eventually happen the same way as stereo sound became the norm as a base minimum.

He is looking at it as a accountant working out if he can make a profit off it right now. Sony are setting up a platform. An environment. Devs will gradually populate that environment over time. Some VR games may sell well iof they hit a novel idea but it won't go mainstream for years. If Sony can keep the hardware costs low, it will be a niche market for early adopters offering unique thrills a bit like a fairground ride. As the tech matures and Morpheus 2 arrives it will start to grab the mainstream and games will be VR, just like when side scrollers suddenly took a back seat when 3D environments became possible.

But you have to start somewhere and Pachter's negative comments just cast doubt, preventing people from having the confidence to stick their neck out and progress. The world would be a better place without Michael Pachter. He serves no purpose. He's either stating the obvious or calling it wrong and stunting progress.
Posted 18:21 on 27 March 2014
ert3's Avatar

ert3

I disagree because this has played out before only sony messed up during the normalization stage.

Case in point the eye toy's history.
PS2 Novelty
PS3 mildy helpfull
Xbox 360 Kinect Mildy Sucessfull
PS4 lets copy kinect only not allow people to ruin games and movies by making slight noises in the background
XBONER you must have a kinect.

Logically sony might think that VR will be a good thing when the PS6/7 drops so best to make the wasteful version now (and hopefully get more people to like having lights outside of their vision)
Posted 10:30 on 26 March 2014
Bretty's Avatar

Bretty

I think the reason most of his correct guesses aren't reported on is because most the time they're fairly obvious (e.g.: Madden will sell loads… wow, great insight).

I have no beef with him as a person really but I just find on video game websites, where there's loads of opinion articles, making a post out of the opinion of someone (in this case Pachter) happens far too frequently, and I'm aware it'll continue to do so.

I've listened to him a few times, he's an interesting guy, but it is the amount of column inches he gets that I've always just found odd.

Still. Could be worse. Could still have loads of articles quoting Jack Thompson popping up.
Posted 07:46 on 26 March 2014
Karlius's Avatar

Karlius

Pachter "PS4 will overtake global sales of Wii U by spring" Guy got it right.
"PS4 to win the console wars!" Jan 2009 he predicted that PS3 wouldn't catch 360 till 2014 that was correct.

To this his main job is making predictions for investment and clearly does a good job. These quotes are predictions on the trends he is seeing or feeling. Is he wrong a lot too right but half of the time the actual stuff he says correctly isn't reported on. Gets bad press really.

He has no affiliation that's a cert. We all make predictions but for some reason his are reported on due to his high profile role. Take everything with a pinch of salt. Used to hate the guy but followed him on twitter and seems ok.
Posted 20:59 on 25 March 2014
altaranga's Avatar

altaranga

Pachter loves Microsoft and cannot find a good word to say about anything else. As soon as you realise this you begin to love the guy (in the same way you might love... say... that guy who sits at the back of the bus on your way home from work who makes you slightly uncomfortable but seems insistent on cleaning the windows with his tongue).
Posted 18:03 on 25 March 2014
Markey010's Avatar

Markey010

Michael Pachter's prediction history is so awful it's hilarious, It's like throwing darts with a blindfold on, some of them make it on the board, while the other 90% end up completely off target. I guess the only reason he keeps his job is because he's mostly advising investors who know bugger all about video games & the video games industry.

Some personal favorites:
"People will bore of World of Warcraft" (2005)
"Midway will have a significantly better year in 2008" (2007, Just before Midway filed for bankruptcy protection)
"Kinect will cost $50, will be very surprised if more than $79" (2010, and it was $150)
"This is the last generation of consoles.” (2009)

"Xbox 720 could retail for as little as $99"
Posted 17:49 on 25 March 2014
TheMightyPedro's Avatar

TheMightyPedro

Can anyone genuinely name one occasion when Pachter has either
a) not sounded like a complete arse
b) been right
Posted 17:37 on 25 March 2014
Lalaland's Avatar

Lalaland

Eh the VR headset is not going to be cheap so it will wind up as a 'halo' device used to demonstrate Sony's technical chops rather than as a million seller. In many respects it's quite Rift like in that most PC players won't have one but there will be interesting games/experiences for those that do.
Posted 17:13 on 25 March 2014
pblive's Avatar

pblive@ KamSage

What, bundled with the next Sony console? :D

It could go either way, to be honest. Depends if there's a killer app or two.
Posted 17:05 on 25 March 2014
KamSage's Avatar

KamSage

Analysts are not fortune tellers. If they make predictions using solid logic and appropriate data, it's not their fault if the prediction doesn't come true. They're advisors not seers.
Economic analysts are off the money all the time, but usually not by an horrendous way. Some predictions are more accurate compared to others. There are analysts because companies need forward thinking ideas and predictions. There is a demand.

Pachter's logic isn't really wrong here. VR headsets are not what I see as the future, and i'd never buy one, i'd believe. I think the Oculus Rift is basically a nice bit of kit, but every time I want to play a game, I don't want to strap on a headset. I don't like wearing glasses much, and avoid them unless I need them. Why would I want to strap goggles on? I'd only say that the hype and good reception of Oculus is more favourable than other headsets i've seen.

I'd have to be shown it's better or needed. I agree that this could probably go the way of the Kinect.
Posted 16:20 on 25 March 2014
DragonGuard666's Avatar

DragonGuard666

Generally whatever Pachter says, expect the opposite to be true.
Posted 14:00 on 25 March 2014
Karlius's Avatar

Karlius@ Endless

It isn't so much a movement tracker, from what I've seen thus far it uses the controller much like Oculus Rift.

The camera pics up the little blue lights on the headset to see where you are looking. So you may look behind you and the camera can track the light so that you see behind you.

I subscribe to the bellow and I'm sure thats how they describe how it works.

YouTube Video

I suppose the other way of looking at this is that Sony are countering Oculus Rift. If it hits the big time and becomes the next must have gadget then there it is but with the Playstation VR you'll get a product that is strongly tied to the brand and for me that may carry a little more weight.
Posted 13:04 on 25 March 2014
Endless's Avatar

Endless@ Bretty

He's the only one I can think of. While stories like this get published around the web, he'll remain in the public eye.

I have concerns over how much space you need to be able to use one of these headsets. Where it's incorporated into one of those omni directional treadmills there's at least a finite amount of space required. Without you're restrained by your environment.
Posted 12:59 on 25 March 2014
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