Sony's estimate 'looks like a stretch' says RW Baird's Colin Sebastian.
Financial analysts don't believe Sony can achieve its target of selling 10 million PS Vitas by the end of March 2013.
With 1.8 million units shifted worldwide since launch, several analysts have told GamesIndustry that a price cut may be necessary if the 10 million figure is to be reached.
"10 million looks like a stretch goal at this point," said RW Baird's Colin Sebastian. "Perhaps there is a price cut baked into that guidance later in the year, or Sony believe that there are titles such as Call of Duty for Vita that will be meaningful platform drivers.
"Vita is a great dedicated game device, but the market for those products continues to shrink as smart devices become better platforms for games."
Asif Khan, CEO of Panoptic Management Consultants agrees that Sony is going to have to take a hit on PS Vita pricing.
"Unfortunately, PS Vita's margins will have to suffer through price cuts if they want to start moving more units out of stores. The price cut of the 3DS was exactly the catalyst Nintendo needed to jumpstart sales after a similar lacklustre launch. That being said, Sony has bigger problems than a Vita price cut can solve."
However, Lewis Ward, IDC Research Manager, isn't quite so glum about Vita sales.
"My global estimate for Vita hardware sales in calendar year 2012 is a little over 9 million. Vita only had about a month of sales beyond Japan in Sony's last fiscal year so I think it's likely the 1.8 million total will be matched or beaten in the next couple quarters."
Expect Sony to dish out lots of PS Vita game announcements at E3 next month.