Analysts aren't convinced PS Vita will meet its 10 million sales target

NewsPublish Date 15/05/2012 - 9:08am GMT+1

Sony's estimate 'looks like a stretch' says RW Baird's Colin Sebastian.

Financial analysts don't believe Sony can achieve its target of selling 10 million PS Vitas by the end of March 2013.

With 1.8 million units shifted worldwide since launch, several analysts have told GamesIndustry that a price cut may be necessary if the 10 million figure is to be reached.

"10 million looks like a stretch goal at this point," said RW Baird's Colin Sebastian. "Perhaps there is a price cut baked into that guidance later in the year, or Sony believe that there are titles such as Call of Duty for Vita that will be meaningful platform drivers.

"Vita is a great dedicated game device, but the market for those products continues to shrink as smart devices become better platforms for games."

Asif Khan, CEO of Panoptic Management Consultants agrees that Sony is going to have to take a hit on PS Vita pricing.

"Unfortunately, PS Vita's margins will have to suffer through price cuts if they want to start moving more units out of stores. The price cut of the 3DS was exactly the catalyst Nintendo needed to jumpstart sales after a similar lacklustre launch. That being said, Sony has bigger problems than a Vita price cut can solve."

However, Lewis Ward, IDC Research Manager, isn't quite so glum about Vita sales.

"My global estimate for Vita hardware sales in calendar year 2012 is a little over 9 million.  Vita only had about a month of sales beyond Japan in Sony's last fiscal year so I think it's likely the 1.8 million total will be matched or beaten in the next couple quarters."

Expect Sony to dish out lots of PS Vita game announcements at E3 next month.

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User Comments

Wido

I personally think E3, like Nintendo did, is the best way of getting everyone interested again. Price drop, better games and future commitment is vital, because people want that support when they are buying your product.

The 3DS has picked up because of the price drop and now the small catalogue of games worthy of purchasing not just Zelda, Mario and Kid Icarus, but the games also on the eShop is worth mentioning. Woffls said it exactly for the 3DS side, so Sony should follow suit. Even though the Vita has better launch titles than compared to the 3DS. It's what you do with the machine in the meantime which determines its success. Saying that the Vita is getting those games slow but surely. MK Vita, Resistance Burning Skies, God of War? Killzone? Gran Tourismo? LBP Vita as some stage? Some great games yet to come and potentially to happen. Another Uncharted game would actually make me want one even more, but just saying God of War Vita is the climax for me.

Posted 08:16 on 16 May 2012

pblive

I thought the Mortal Kombat graphics were good on Vita, slight jagged edges when they do the intro or end moves, but in motion you dont notice. Most vita review codes for the game were sent out not long ago, so the review might still be in progress. But then handhelds always play second fiddle to consoles for review and news coverage.

Actually, I've seen a fair few MK reviews and none of them had a bad thing to say about it.

Posted 23:04 on 15 May 2012

guyderman

They also need to get the backward compatablity working for the PSone titles - again it will draw more people to it - I have a fair few PSone games DL'd on my PS3, but I find that if I'm playing on the PS3 I tend to play PS3 games. I'd be a lot more inclined to play the likes of Silent Hill, Resi 1, 2 & 3 and Final Fantasy while on the go - and this will help people wait for the newer titles.

I'm also concerned that Mortal Kombat may have done some damage - a lot of people were under the impression that they were getting nigh on PS3 graphics on the Vita, but the graphics being massively downscaled for the vita release will, (and has), upset a fair few people and will make people think twice about getting one. (BTW the scaled down graphics haven't caused me any problem personally, it runs beautifully - I am playing MK to death on the Vita at the moment!).

It also doesn't help that a lot of gaming sites just seem to be ignoring the Vita or are only reporting doom and gloom for it - it's been two months since VG.com reviewed anything for it, and have only really bothered reporting on it in a negative light. More people turn to internet gaming sites like this for info now than anywhere else so this type of thing certainly can't be helping sales.

Posted 15:45 on 15 May 2012

pblive

This is pretty much replicating the 3DS issue Nintendo faced. Analysts were dismissive of Nintendo's hardware too and it didn't sell as well as they hoped at first.

As Woffls says, the price cut started to boost sales, which pretty much tells us that people haven't got the money spare to spend on handheld games machines (I'm assuming in addition to smartphone annual updates). As did software. Yes, Sony would lose more in the short term, but building a big userbase is the key to long term success and encouraging third parties.

E3 might see a whole raft of new releases being announced, but they do need to rally the third parties. Mortal Kombat looks like its proved popular since launch last week and UFC is another big title out in about 10 days, but more games would be preferable to boost hardware sales.

Posted 11:31 on 15 May 2012

Woffls

Price cut and software is what got 3DS that far, so it's the very least that Sony should be aiming for this fall.

Posted 10:53 on 15 May 2012

MrGloomy

Would it be a bad sign for Sony that I often forget that the PS Vita is out or even exists? Would it also be bad that I have several work colleagues that also forget about the existence of the Vita and we all work in the game's biz? Personally, I think the failure of the Vita could really make the PSP seem like a huge success in comparison.

Posted 09:40 on 15 May 2012